If there is one thing investors should have learned in 2026, it is that the market can change direction very quickly.
Now that Q4 is fast approaching (starting September 30), here are some things I believe investors like those in our investment groups in Tampa, West Palm Beach and Boca Raton should be monitoring along with some ‘trap doors’ you really want to be cognizant of.
Interest rates, artificial intelligence, wars and geopolitical tension, government policy, energy prices and the movement between large-cap and small-cap stocks are all pulling on the market at the same time.
As I’ve said to our Tampa and West Palm Beach investor groups recently – “Lately, the markets have had more trap doors than ever. Navigating through them can prove treacherous yet also very rewarding.”
That is really what this market feels like.
There are opportunities out there, but investors have to pay attention to more than a ticker symbol and a stock chart. You have to understand what is happening around a company and what can change the story.
The Federal Reserve just put interest rates front and center again.
On September 16, the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first increase in several years, and the Fed continues to say inflation remains elevated.
So the question investors need to ask is simple: Are we entering another rate-hiking cycle, or is this temporary?
Nobody knows that answer yet.
I think we are likely to see another rate hike later this year actually. What we DO know is that interest rates matter. They affect mortgages, business borrowing, corporate expansion, valuations and the amount of money investors are willing to put into riskier assets.
They can be especially important for smaller companies that need access to capital.
That does not mean investors should run away from small caps. It means you need to know the environment you are investing in.
This is probably one of the biggest questions in the market.
Companies have spent enormous amounts of money building AI infrastructure, data centers, chips and computing capacity. For investors, the issue is no longer whether AI is important. Clearly it is.
The question is whether that spending continues at the same pace and whether companies can turn that investment into profits.
So far, there is still plenty of evidence that the spending continues.
Alphabet, the parent company of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG, GOOGL), recently increased its expected 2026 capital expenditures to roughly $195 billion to $205 billion, much of it tied to technology infrastructure and AI.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 Data Center revenue of $89 billion, up 117% from a year earlier. AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) reported that its second-quarter Data Center revenue more than doubled year over year to $6.7 billion.
Those are big numbers.
We follow NVDA, AMD and GOOG closely because they give investors a pretty good window into what is happening with AI spending.
That does not mean these stocks go up every week. They won’t. AI stocks have already shown they can sell off quickly when expectations get too high.
But if companies continue writing big checks for AI infrastructure, investors should pay attention to where that money is going.
Markets do not operate in a bubble.
The Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, trade disputes, energy supply and relationships between the United States and China can all affect markets.
We are seeing that right now.
Oil has recently traded above $100 a barrel amid Middle East supply concerns, adding another inflation variable for investors and central banks to think about.
I always come back to a basic question: Can we eventually count on peace, or are these situations escalating?
You do not need to become a foreign policy expert to invest. But you cannot completely ignore what is happening around the world either.
Energy prices can affect inflation. Inflation can affect interest rates. Interest rates can affect stock valuations.
One thing leads to another.
Policy is another factor that investors need to watch.
Crypto is a good example.
There has been considerable attention on the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act and other efforts to establish clearer rules for digital assets. But as of September 15, the Senate had not advanced the CLARITY Act, after the measure failed to reach the votes required to move forward.
That does not end the discussion. It shows why investors should follow legislation instead of assuming that proposed rules are already settled.
One company we follow closely in this area is BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR). Bear Creek invested in the company early, and we continue to follow its Ethereum strategy.
As of September 13, BitMine reported holdings of approximately 5.96 million ETH.
Our view is that Ethereum has the potential to play a major role in the future of digital finance. Whether that thesis proves correct will depend on adoption, technology, competition, regulation and a lot of other factors.
That is exactly why policy matters.
There is also a tug-of-war going on between the liquidity and relative stability of larger companies and the potential upside available in smaller companies.
Large-cap companies usually offer investors far greater trading liquidity. Small-cap and micro-cap companies can sometimes offer more dramatic growth potential, but they also come with significantly greater risk, volatility and, in some cases, limited liquidity.
At Bear Creek, smaller emerging companies have always been an area we find interesting because that is where you can sometimes find a business before the broader market understands the story.
But you have to do your homework.
For example, Guerrilla RF (OTCQX: GUER) recently reported record quarterly revenue of $8 million for Q2 2026, up 49% year over year, along with $1 million in operating income. The company develops high-performance RF and microwave semiconductor products.
SEALSQ (NASDAQ: LAES) is another company we are following in the developing post-quantum cybersecurity market. The company is building semiconductor and security technology designed for a world in which organizations increasingly need quantum-resistant encryption.
Then there is Comstock (NYSE American: LODE), which has been advancing the commissioning of an industrial-scale solar-panel recycling facility. The company reported progress this summer toward a planned 100,000-ton-per-year production line.
Brazil Potash (NYSE American: GRO) offers a completely different type of story through its proposed Autazes potash project in Brazil. It is important to understand that this remains a development-stage project. The company has not begun commercial extraction and says construction remains dependent in part on securing sufficient funding. That is precisely the kind of distinction investors need to understand when evaluating potential versus current operations.
Different industries. Different risk levels. Different potential catalysts.
The common denominator is paying attention to what the companies actually accomplish.
There is a lot competing for investment dollars right now.
You have traditional large-cap stocks, emerging companies, AI, crypto, bonds, private investments, commodities and plenty of cash still sitting on the sidelines.
That competition is healthy, but it also means investors need to be selective.
I don’t believe you navigate a market like this by sitting around waiting for everything to become perfectly clear. Markets are almost never perfectly clear.
You navigate it by staying informed, watching what companies actually do, understanding the risks and recognizing that there may be a trap door underneath even the best-looking opportunity.
Sometimes avoiding that trap door is the win.
And sometimes, on the other side of it, there is an opportunity nobody else was paying attention to.
This article is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, legal or tax advice, or as an offer, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security, digital asset or other investment.
Bear Creek Capital, its principals, affiliates, clients and/or related parties may currently own, have previously owned, or in the future acquire positions in securities discussed in this article, including securities specifically identified above. Such positions may create a potential conflict of interest. Positions may be increased, reduced or sold at any time without notice.
Statements concerning companies, industries, technologies, projects, market conditions or future potential may include forward-looking statements and opinions that are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially.
Small-cap, micro-cap, OTC, development-stage and emerging-growth securities can involve substantial risk, including high volatility, limited liquidity, limited operating histories, financing risk and the possible loss of an investor’s entire investment. Digital assets and companies whose value is materially related to digital assets may also experience substantial price volatility and regulatory risk.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Bear Creek Capital makes no representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified financial, legal and tax professionals before making investment decisions.